Hunch. On 18 October Iran's foreign minister said Iran's offer stays on the table, with talks the day after the US accepts its conditions.
The deal market resolves on whitehouse.gov and state.gov: YES if by the end of 3 December 2026, Washington time, the US and Iranian governments both sign a written document on ending the war, a pause, the Strait of Hormuz or sanctions, and both confirm it. New talks, a spoken understanding, or a text signed only by a go-between or by one side count as NO, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the official pages are silent.
We looked for cases where a side in a war publicly promised to pause its attacks until an election, with no signed deal with the other side. We found four such pauses since 2011. Three came from the Kurdish armed group PKK in Turkey and one from the largest group of former FARC rebels in Colombia. None of them led to a signed deal by a month after the vote.