By the end of 3 November 2026 Trump made no promise of no US attack on Iran after 3 November with a date, period or condition; the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island on 2 to 3 November and Trump said "we will do something, but there is no rush" (BBC News, The Guardian).
Hunch. In March Trump twice pushed back his own deadline for Iran before it ran out, each time pointing to talks.
The extension market resolves on whitehouse.gov: YES if by the end of 3 November 2026, Washington time, Trump or his spokespeople publicly promise no US attack on Iran after 3 November, with a date, a period or a condition such as continued talks. A threat, or words about productive talks without a promise for the time after 3 November, counts as NO, and if the promise is only on Truth Social, reports in BBC News and The Guardian settle it.
We looked for cases where a side in a war publicly promised to pause its attacks until an election, with no signed deal with the other side. We found four such pauses since 2011. Three came from the Kurdish armed group PKK in Turkey and one from the largest group of former FARC rebels in Colombia. None of them led to a signed deal by a month after the vote.