Hunch. Congress leaves for the 3 November elections within days, the only case that failed before a long election-year recess never returned, and the bill drew no Democratic votes on the floor, so the estimate sits far below six in eight.
This market resolves on the congress.gov actions list for H.R. 3633, which the Library of Congress updates the day after each Senate sitting; it resolves YES if an action reading Passed Senate is dated on or before 14 December 2026, and text moved into a different bill number does not count. If congress.gov is unavailable, the Senate roll-call record on senate.gov settles it, or two of Reuters, the New York Times and the Guardian reporting the passage.
We looked at every major bill since 2009 that failed its first Senate vote to start debate, after winning at least a quarter of the other party's votes at an earlier stage. Major here means a bill that sets national rules for a whole sector or programme and had already passed the House or a Senate committee. Spending bills and yearly defence bills are left out. We found eight, and checked how many passed the Senate within 31 days and within 90 days.