Hunch. Tillis's pending motion to reconsider gives party leaders a quick route back, and six of the eight cases got a second vote, but the only election-year case never did, so the estimate stays well under the record.
This market resolves on the same congress.gov actions list; it resolves YES if any Senate roll-call vote on H.R. 3633, including on the motion to reconsider, cloture, the motion to proceed or passage, is recorded after 15 September 2026 and before noon on 3 January 2027, while voice votes and unanimous consent requests do not count. If congress.gov is unavailable, the Senate roll-call record on senate.gov settles it, or two of Reuters, the New York Times and the Guardian.
We looked at every major bill since 2009 that failed its first Senate vote to start debate, after winning at least a quarter of the other party's votes at an earlier stage. Major here means a bill that sets national rules for a whole sector or programme and had already passed the House or a Senate committee. Spending bills and yearly defence bills are left out. We found eight, and checked how many passed the Senate within 31 days and within 90 days.