Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market30 Sep 2026

Will the Vesuvius board recommend RHI Magnesita's offer by 27 Oct?

BinaryResolves 27 Oct 2026
History2 of 5
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

By 5pm on 27 October 2026 the Vesuvius board did not say it recommends an RHI Magnesita offer: its announcement at 4.32pm that day only extended the deadline to 24 November and said material further work is still required.

Resolved 27 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 2 of 5 cases.

Hunch. After rejecting about 550p twice this year, the board now says it is weighing the same price and the risk to completion instead of turning it down (Vesuvius, 29 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

The board market resolves on announcements by Vesuvius, or joint announcements with RHI Magnesita, on the London Stock Exchange news service: YES if by 5pm on 27 October 2026 the Vesuvius board says it recommends, or intends to recommend, an offer from RHI Magnesita. An extension of the deadline without such a statement, a walk-away or a rejection resolves NO. Reuters and BBC News settle it if the announcements cannot be found.

The pattern behind it

2 of 5
In 2 of 5 cases the board recommended the offer, and in both the buyer raised its price. In the other three the board never backed the deal.

We looked for cases where a company's board had refused a buyer at least twice, and then the company's largest shareholder, not a buyer itself, came out in public for the buyer before the board had agreed. We found five since 2004, in Britain, France, Germany and South Africa. In two of them the board went on to recommend the offer.