Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market30 Sep 2026

Will RHI Magnesita improve its offer for Vesuvius by 27 October?

BinaryResolves 27 Oct 2026
History2 of 5
Hunch35%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Between 29 September and 5pm on 27 October 2026 neither Vesuvius nor RHI Magnesita announced better terms than 470p in cash and 0.028 new shares; the announcements on investegate show only the deadline extension and dealing forms.

Resolved 27 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 2 of 5 cases. SABMiller got 4.4% more after six days; Suez got 13.9% more after six months.

Hunch. RHI Magnesita's proposals have stayed at about 550p since March, and Cevian has already agreed to back 549p, so there is less need to pay more (Vesuvius, RHI Magnesita, 29 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

The higher offer market resolves on announcements by RHI Magnesita or Vesuvius on the London Stock Exchange news service: YES if by 5pm on 27 October 2026 either announces terms with more than 470p in cash or more than 0.028 new RHI Magnesita shares for each Vesuvius share. A change in RHI Magnesita's share price alone does not count. Reuters and BBC News are the backup.

The pattern behind it

2 of 5
In 2 of 5 cases the board recommended the offer, and in both the buyer raised its price. In the other three the board never backed the deal.

We looked for cases where a company's board had refused a buyer at least twice, and then the company's largest shareholder, not a buyer itself, came out in public for the buyer before the board had agreed. We found five since 2004, in Britain, France, Germany and South Africa. In two of them the board went on to recommend the offer.