Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market30 Sep 2026

Will RHI Magnesita's 27 October deadline for Vesuvius be extended?

BinaryResolves 27 Oct 2026
History2 of 5
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

At 4.32pm on 27 October 2026 Vesuvius announced that the Takeover Panel had agreed to extend the Rule 2.6 deadline for RHI Magnesita to 5pm on 24 November 2026, and RHI Magnesita confirmed it the same day.

Resolved 27 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count from the cases: past deadline extensions were not recorded. This question comes from what the three sides want.

Hunch. A month after the latest proposal the board is still weighing price and completion risk, which points to talks that may need more time (Vesuvius, 29 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

The deadline market resolves on announcements by Vesuvius or RHI Magnesita on the London Stock Exchange news service: YES if by 5pm on 27 October 2026 either says the Takeover Panel has agreed to extend the Rule 2.6 deadline. A firm offer before the deadline without an extension, a walk-away or no announcement resolves NO. Reuters and BBC News are the backup.

The pattern behind it

2 of 5
In 2 of 5 cases the board recommended the offer, and in both the buyer raised its price. In the other three the board never backed the deal.

We looked for cases where a company's board had refused a buyer at least twice, and then the company's largest shareholder, not a buyer itself, came out in public for the buyer before the board had agreed. We found five since 2004, in Britain, France, Germany and South Africa. In two of them the board went on to recommend the offer.