Hunch. Polls quoted by the Guardian on 10 October put One Nation near 20% across Victoria, a third party bigger than at any of the six earlier elections.
The poll-leader market uses the latest Newspoll, Resolve, Redbridge, YouGov or Essential two-party poll with fieldwork ending 29 September to 29 October 2026: YES if the side it shows ahead by 51-49 to 54-46 forms the government, NO if the other side does, and void if no such poll exists or it shows a tie or a wider lead. It resolves on the Victorian Electoral Commission results when the losing leader concedes or the new premier is sworn in, with The Guardian and Reuters as backup.
We looked for cases where one side led an Australian state or territory election poll of the two-party vote by 51-49 to 54-46, between 30 and 60 days before polling day, in a Newspoll, Resolve, Redbridge, YouGov or Essential poll since 2010. We found six such elections, from 2014 to 2023. Each time, the side ahead formed the government.