Hunch. On 24 September Victoria's deputy premier Gabrielle Williams said the polls show the Liberals and Nationals short of a majority on their own.
The majority market resolves on the Victorian Electoral Commission results for the 88 seats of the main chamber: YES if Labor alone, or the Liberals and Nationals together, win at least 45, and NO if neither does. If the count is not settled on 28 November it waits for the commission to declare the 45th seat for one side or the last seat, with The Guardian and Reuters as backup.
We looked for cases where one side led an Australian state or territory election poll of the two-party vote by 51-49 to 54-46, between 30 and 60 days before polling day, in a Newspoll, Resolve, Redbridge, YouGov or Essential poll since 2010. We found six such elections, from 2014 to 2023. Each time, the side ahead formed the government.