History. 2 of 5: tariffs named with a list of goods inside six months (China 1994 on day 184, with the extension; Ukraine 2001 on day 143). Six months here means 184 days. By the calendar China came a day late, and then it is 1 of 5.
Hunch. On 6 November the US trade office had still named no tariff rate for Vietnam, and an extension would let it wait until after the G20.
The proposal market resolves YES if by the end of 29 November, Washington time, the trade office has named tariffs on Vietnam with a rate or a list of goods, even with no decision on them, or it or the president has decided on tariffs, including a tariff that starts at 0%, while an extension with no rate or list, a finding with no tariffs named, a deal or silence is NO. The date of the action counts, with USTR releases and the Federal Register first, confirmed by Reuters, read through The Straits Times if Reuters does not open, and Reuters and AP as backup.
We looked for cases where US law forced the trade office to open an investigation, because it had just named that country a priority foreign country. We checked what it decided in the first six months. We found five such investigations from 1993 to 2013: Brazil, China, Paraguay and Ukraine twice.