Hunch. BBC Sport noted on 13 October that Wales have never beaten a top-20 team in a competitive game.
The Norway market resolves on UEFA's match page for Norway v Wales on 5 December: YES if Norway go through over the two games, extra time and penalties included, and NO if Wales go through, whether or not the winner goes straight to the World Cup. If the second game is moved, it resolves on the day UEFA publishes the result, and BBC Sport and The Guardian settle it if UEFA's page is silent.
We looked for cases where a European women's team played a much stronger team over two games in the last round before a World Cup or European Championship, and played the first game at home. Much stronger means at least 10 places higher in the FIFA ranking. We found ten such finals from 2004 to 2024. The stronger team went through nine times.