Hunch. Scotland captain Caroline Weir pulled out injured in the warm-up on 13 October, seven weeks before the Sweden games.
The Sweden market resolves on UEFA's match page for Sweden v Scotland in Stockholm, set by BBC Sport for 5 December: YES if Sweden go through over the two games, extra time and penalties included, and NO if Scotland go through. If the second game is moved, it resolves on the day UEFA publishes the result, and BBC Sport and The Guardian settle it if UEFA's page is silent.
We looked for cases where a European women's team played a much stronger team over two games in the last round before a World Cup or European Championship, and played the first game at home. Much stronger means at least 10 places higher in the FIFA ranking. We found ten such finals from 2004 to 2024. The stronger team went through nine times.