Hunch. A DHM poll shows 57% of voters against repeal, and the side keeping the tax has outspent the initiative by more than half.
The repeal market resolves on the certified results of the Washington Secretary of State, due by 3 December 2026: YES if Initiative 645 gets more Yes than No votes and the tax is repealed, NO if No votes win. The Guardian and Reuters are the backup.
We looked for cases where voters in a US state decided, on a petition from the tax's opponents, whether to keep a tax that lawmakers had just brought in or raised. We found five on open official pages, three in Maine and two in Washington. Voters scrapped the tax four times, each time with more than 60% of the vote.