Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market08 Oct 2026

Will 60% or more of Washington voters back repealing the tax?

BinaryResolves 3 Dec 2026
History4 of 5
Hunch6%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 3 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 4 of 5: every repeal won 60.4% to 69.3%; the tax that was kept got 35.9% for repeal; no vote fell between 36% and 60%.

Hunch. A DHM poll shows 57% against repeal, so a 60% vote for it would need a swing of more than 17 points.

How this resolves

The 60% market resolves on the same certified results: YES if Yes votes for Initiative 645 are 60.0% or more of all Yes and No votes, NO if less. Blank ballots do not count, and The Guardian and Reuters are the backup.

The pattern behind it

4 of 5
In four of five state votes on a new tax, voters scrapped it, each time with 60.4% to 69.3%. Once, in Washington in 2024, 64.1% voted to keep it.

We looked for cases where voters in a US state decided, on a petition from the tax's opponents, whether to keep a tax that lawmakers had just brought in or raised. We found five on open official pages, three in Maine and two in Washington. Voters scrapped the tax four times, each time with more than 60% of the vote.