History. 2 of 4: more than one candidate in 2008 (Senedd members only) and 2017 (approved candidates could stand); one nominee in 2007 and 2016.
Hunch. On 20 October the party said only David Chadwick, its one MP in Wales, can seek nomination at this stage.
The vote market resolves on the Welsh Liberal Democrats' internal elections page and party news: YES if two or more people are validly nominated for leader when nominations close at midday on 16 November, so members get a vote, and NO if there is one candidate or none. If the party moves the close, it resolves on the new date if that is by 31 December, otherwise it is void; BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the party pages are silent.
We looked for cases where the Welsh Liberal Democrats chose a new leader after the last one stepped down, and reports show how many people were nominated. We found four such races, from 2007 to 2017. The rules on who could stand changed almost every time. Each time we checked whether more than one person stood, so that members had a vote.