Does World Athletics ratify dos Santos's 45.80 by 27 November?
BinaryResolves 27 Nov 2026
History25%
Hunch35%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolves 27 Nov 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on a press release or news item on worldathletics.org dated on or before 27 November 2026 stating that Alison dos Santos's 45.80 has been ratified as a world record; the federation publishes ratifications in batches without a fixed schedule. If that source has not published in time, BBC Sport and Al Jazeera reports of the ratification. If worldathletics.org is silent by 27 November, resolves NO settle it.
The pattern behind it
2 of 8
Two of the last eight senior world records World Athletics ratified were confirmed within 92 days of the performance, and both were the London Marathon marks that waited 88 days. Across the full record since the April 2025 release it is eleven of 25: nine of fourteen in 2025, when Duplantis's 6.29m cleared in 29 days, against two of eleven in 2026. Nothing in the full set was confirmed inside 29 days, so a market on the standard 31-day horizon has no case behind it.
Only two of the last eight records were confirmed within 92 days. We looked at the last eight senior world records that World Athletics confirmed, ordered by the date of the performance. For each, we counted the days from the performance to the press release that confirmed it.
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