Westminster
Lords amendments — passage rate
Bills returned by Lords with 10+ amendments tend to pass within four weeks. Pattern holds across 50 years of major legislation.
Base rate75%
Cases12 since 1980
Active Echoes2
Library
Pattern library
Recurring dynamics in UK politics, identified across 125 years of news archives. Each pattern shows the base rate, the case bank, and current Echoes that match.
Cabinet
Polling collapse → reshuffle trigger
Cabinet reshuffles follow ~6 weeks after sustained sub-30% polling, especially before recess. Pre-announcement leaks have 70% hit rate within fortnight.
Base rate70%
Cases8 since 1990
Active Echoes1
Policy
"Active review" wind-down
When ministers describe a flagship policy as "under active review", 5 of 6 historical cases ended in quiet wind-down within year one.
Base rate83%
Cases6 since 2010
Active Echoes1
Fiscal
Budget leak cycle
85% of major Budget measures leak to broadsheet press in the 14 days before delivery. Treasury denies, paper publishes, measure appears in Budget.
Base rate85%
Cases22 since 2000
Active Echoes0
Constitutional
Court vs Executive — textualist reading
Major constitutional cases against the executive tend to favour the executive's disfavour when textualist arguments are reserved. 2019 Prorogation, 2017 Article 50.
Base rate~80%
Cases5 since 2010
Active Echoes1
Parliament
Backbench revolt — threshold of 40
When 40+ backbenchers publicly signal opposition to a whip, the government either pulls vote or loses. Below 40, the whip usually holds.
Base rate90%
Cases14 since 1995
Active Echoes1
Elections
By-election incumbent swing
Mid-term by-elections show 8-15 point average swing against governing party. Pattern holds across 40 years of by-elections.
Average swing11.5%
Cases60+ since 1985
Active Echoes1
Foreign Policy
Manifesto pledge slippage
Manifesto pledges with named deadlines slip past deadline 65% of the time. Climate pledges slip most.
Slip rate65%
Cases40+ since 2000
Active Echoes0