Staffordshire lost its third Reform leader. Will the council elect Hayley Coles?

What happened

The Reform UK leader of Staffordshire County Council has announced his decision to step down after seven months in the role.

Martin Murray stepped down as leader of Staffordshire County Council on 27 October. He had led the council since March. He also left his post as leader of the Reform UK group of councillors, but he stays a Reform councillor for Cannock Town.

The same day, the Reform group chose Hayley Coles, until then deputy leader, as its fourth group leader. She is now acting leader of the council, and Sean Bagguley is acting deputy leader. A Reform spokesperson said she would be confirmed as leader of the council in December.

Formal selection of Leader and Deputy Leader of the Council will be held at a meeting of Full Council on 10 December 2026.

Staffordshire County Council, 27 October 2026

Reform holds 49 of the 62 seats, so its councillors alone can decide the vote. The two group leaders before Murray both left the party. Ian Cooper was thrown out of the party for not declaring his social media accounts. Chris Large left after he was accused of racist comments on an account in his name. He said the account was hacked, and he was never sworn in as council leader.

If nothing changes, the full council votes on 10 December, 44 days after Murray left. Phillip White, who leads the Conservative opposition on the council, called a fourth Reform leader in a year and a half ‘deeply concerning’.

Sources: bbc.co.uk

The Pattern

We looked for cases where the leader of the ruling group on an English council stood down in the middle of a term, and the full council had to vote on the successor the group named. We found eight such changes from 2015 to 2026. Each time we checked whether the council elected the named person at its first meeting with that vote.

The Read

The group has the votes, and Coles already does the job. In the three past changes where the named person was already acting leader before the vote, in Staffordshire in March 2026, in Newcastle in 2024 and in South Tyneside in 2021, the council elected that person each time. A Reform spokesperson has said Coles will be confirmed in December.

There are reasons for doubt. The one miss happened in this same council in February 2026, when Chris Large pulled out five days after the group chose him and the vote was put off. This time there are 44 days before the vote, and in most past changes it took 6 to 58 days. Two of the eight changes were in Staffordshire under the same group, and three of the new leaders are still in the job.