Tue, 19 May 2026
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Wales budget1 Nov 2026

Wales's £10 child payment waits on the UK government. Will it say yes by 17 Nov?

Wales plans £10 a week for 15,000 young children if the UK government says the money is free of tax and benefit cuts. Its budget is on 17 November.

4 min read

What happened

We need to make sure that the numbers work and there are no unintended consequences.

Wales wants to pay £10 a week for 15,000 young children. The payment, called Cynnal, is for children under six in families on universal credit, the main UK benefit for people on low incomes. In September Welsh finance minister Elin Jones asked the UK government to make sure the money is not taxed and does not reduce benefits.

The UK Budget on did not give that answer. On Welsh Secretary Stephen Kinnock, the UK government’s minister for Wales, said officials were “working together” and the talks were “absolutely positive”. He said the numbers still had to be checked, and he gave no date.

We can’t start this payment before we’ve had the clarity from the UK government that the payment will be exempt from taxation and benefits.

Elin Jones, Welsh finance minister, to BBC Wales, 29 October 2026

The Welsh government, led by Plaid Cymru, will publish its draft budget for 2027-28 on . In October it proposed £2m to start a trial of Cynnal, and the Senedd votes on that budget on . Jones says the UK Budget leaves Wales with less money once rising prices are counted, and the UK Treasury denies this.

Wales has also asked to borrow more and to use more of its savings. Its reserve is capped at £385m, and it can borrow up to £165m a year. After meeting Prime Minister Andy Burnham on , First Minister Rhun ap Iorwerth said it was now a matter of “how and when”. Kinnock said: “I can’t give you a specific time frame as things stand”.

Sources: BBC (2), Senedd Research, BBC, WalesOnline

The Pattern

We looked for cases where Scotland, Wales or Northern Ireland asked the UK government to change a UK rule on money: to keep a new payment free of tax or benefit cuts, or to loosen limits on borrowing and savings. We found six such requests since 2019, four from Scotland and two from Wales. The UK government agreed in full or in part four times, but only once within 77 days.

1 of 6
Once in six requests from Scotland or Wales did the UK government agree within 77 days. Three times it first said no, and twice it agreed later, after 171 and 645 days.
2024 Wales, Evansnot held
: Welsh finance minister Rebecca Evans asked for borrowing and savings rules like Scotland’s. The UK Budget in March gave nothing. Some limits were lifted for 2025-26, and limits rose in .
2021 Scotland, Forbesnot held
: Scottish finance secretary Kate Forbes asked to remove the cap on borrowing for building projects. A new deal in kept the cap but let it rise with prices.
Show the other 4 cases
2020 Scotland, Sturgeonnot held
: Nicola Sturgeon announced £500 for health and care staff and asked Boris Johnson to make it tax-free. The Treasury said no the same day: Scotland could pay extra to cover the tax.
2020 Scotland, carer paymentsnot held
: Scotland asked the UK government to move ahead with legal orders so three new Scottish payments, including the Young Carer Grant, would not cut UK benefits. The order came 77 days later.
2020 Wales, Drakefordnot held
: First Minister Mark Drakeford announced £500 for care workers and asked UK departments not to tax it or cut benefits. In July the UK government said the money would be taxed.
2019 Scotland, child paymentnot held
: Scotland asked the UK government to hurry a legal order so the new Scottish Child Payment would not cut UK benefits. The order came in , 171 days later.

The Read

The UK government agreed in some form to four of the six requests, but its answers on new payments came between the same day and 171 days, and changes to borrowing rules took about two years. Only the 2020 Scottish carer payments got a yes within 77 days, the time from Jones’s September letter to . The two refusals on payments were one-off £500 payments, and both times the UK government said the devolved government could pay extra to cover the tax.

There are reasons for doubt. Each time it was the same government deciding, in London, and four of the six requests came from Scotland. Both full yeses were Scottish payments, and both came through orders under the Scotland Act, the law that sets out Scotland’s powers. Wales has proposed £2m for a trial, with a Senedd vote on , and Kinnock calls the talks positive, but he has given no date.

Sources: legislation.gov.uk (2), BBC (2, 3), Scottish Government, Welsh Government, Senedd Research

Disclaimer

Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.

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