Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
UK football31 Oct 2026

Arsenal won the league last season and share top spot. Most such champions lost it.

Arsenal, the Premier League champions, and Manchester City both have 21 points after eight games. Arsenal play at Liverpool on Sunday 1 November.

4 min read

What happened

Andoni Iraola’s side host the champions, kick-off 4.30pm, with Liverpool six points behind joint-leaders Arsenal and Man City.

Arsenal and Manchester City both have 21 points after eight games of the 2026-27 Premier League. Arsenal won the league last season. Liverpool are fifth, six points behind, and play Arsenal at their Anfield ground on Sunday at 4.30pm.

Liverpool coach Andoni Iraola, in his first season at the club, said it would still be too early to talk about a title race, even with a win over Arsenal. “I said before, it’s still October”, he said. Liverpool have won seven of their last eight games in all competitions.

Arsenal will be without two attacking players for some games. Bukayo Saka has a thigh injury and is not expected back until after the international break. Max Dowman, 16, misses the games against Liverpool, Hull and Newcastle after a red card in a cup game.

Manchester City were found guilty on of most of the 134 charges the Premier League brought over its money rules. The punishment is not yet decided and could include taking points away. City have appealed, and the appeal can take up to 12 weeks, with a decision 30 days after the hearing.

The season ends on Sunday , when all 20 clubs play their last game at the same time.

Sources: Sky Sports, BBC (2), The Independent, The Guardian (2, 3, 4), Premier League

The Pattern

We looked for cases where the champions of one of the five biggest leagues in Europe were level on points at the top after eight games, while another club up to six points behind had won its last two league games. The leagues are in different countries, but the race works the same way in each: every club plays every other club home and away, and the club with the most points at the end wins. We found nine such seasons since 1997, three in England, two each in Italy, France and Spain. The champions won the league again in three. (The Guardian; The Guardian)

3 of 9
Three of nine times the champions were level at the top after eight games, with another club close behind on a winning run, they won the league again, and six times they lost it.
2022 Spain, Real Madridnot held
: Real Madrid, the Spanish champions, had 22 points after eight games, level with Barcelona. Barcelona made the title certain on and finished 10 points ahead of Real Madrid. (The Guardian)
2021 Spain, Atlético Madridnot held
: Atlético Madrid, the Spanish champions, had 17 points after eight games, level with Real Madrid, Sevilla and Real Sociedad. Real Madrid won the league on , and Atlético finished third. (The Guardian)
Show the other 7 cases
2020 France, Paris Saint-Germainnot held
: Paris Saint-Germain, the French champions, had 18 points after eight games, level with Lille. Lille won the league on the last day, , one point ahead of Paris Saint-Germain. (The Guardian)
2018 England, Manchester Cityheld
: Manchester City, the English champions, had 20 points after eight games, level with Liverpool and Chelsea. City won the league again on the last day, , with 98 points to 97. (The Guardian)
2013 France, Paris Saint-Germainheld
: Paris Saint-Germain, the French champions, had 18 points after eight games, level with Monaco. They made the title certain on and finished nine points ahead of Monaco. (The Guardian)
2008 Italy, Interheld
: Inter, the Italian champions, had 17 points after eight games, level with Udinese and Napoli. Inter made the title certain on and finished 10 points ahead. (The Guardian)
2006 England, Chelseanot held
: Chelsea, the English champions, had 19 points after eight games, level with Manchester United. A Chelsea draw at Arsenal on made United champions, six points ahead in the end. (The Guardian)
2003 Italy, Juventusnot held
: Juventus, the Italian champions, had 20 points after eight games, level with Milan. Milan made the title certain by beating Roma 1-0 on , and Juventus finished third. (The Guardian)
1997 England, Manchester Unitednot held
: Manchester United, the English champions, had 18 points after eight games, level with Arsenal. Arsenal made the title certain on and finished one point ahead of United. (Premier League)

The Read

The past points against Arsenal keeping the title. In three of the nine seasons the champions won again. Each time the winner was one of the clubs level at the top after eight games, and the club chasing behind on a winning run never won. The champions always finished in the top three, and in the top two seven times. In seven of the nine seasons the title was certain before the last day.

There are reasons for doubt. In those nine seasons no club level at the top faced a possible points deduction, as Manchester City do now, although City’s appeal may delay any punishment until the end of the season or later. Six of the nine seasons come from Italy, France and Spain, and none came from Germany. Arsenal are without Saka for some weeks, and Liverpool have won seven of their last eight games.

Sources: The Guardian (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7)

Disclaimer

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