Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
UK broadband9 Nov 2026

The UK regulator sees one fix for a broadband deal: a ban. No such deal went ahead.

The Competition and Markets Authority is due to rule on nexfibre buying Netomnia's owner by 15 December. The only fix it has named is a ban.

5 min read

What happened

The CMA publishes replies to its interim report and to its consultation on fixes in the review of nexfibre buying Substantial, the owner of Netomnia, including CityFibre’s request for a ban.

The UK regulator has named one fix for a £2bn deal: a ban. In February nexfibre agreed to buy Substantial, owner of the Netomnia and Brsk fibre networks. nexfibre belongs to Liberty Global, Telefónica and the investor InfraVia. The first two also own Virgin Media O2, nexfibre’s only customer.

On the regulator said the deal could cut competition. Without the deal, the Competition and Markets Authority (CMA) expects CityFibre to buy Substantial, and three networks would then sell to broadband brands in about 32% of the Virgin Media O2 and nexfibre area. With the deal, that falls to about 18%.

On the CMA named a ban as the one fix it had found. The buyers offered no fix of their own, and the CMA found no separate business that could be sold instead. nexfibre’s owners called the report “fundamentally flawed”.

CityFibre, which lost Substantial to nexfibre in 2025, wants a ban. Its reply, published on , says a ban “is the only effective and proportionate remedy”. nexfibre’s owners say a ban would suggest Britain is “closing the door on international investment”.

The legal deadline for the final decision is . Because the firms asked for this fast route, the CMA can add up to 11 weeks for special reasons, to . It can go further if the firms agree, or if someone fails to give it information.

We have identified prohibition of the Transaction (Prohibition Remedy) as a possible remedy option. The Transaction currently remains anticipated.

CMA, invitation to comment on remedies, paragraph 11. The CMA uses prohibition to mean a ban on the deal

Sources: CMA, The Independent, CMA (2, 3, 4, 5), nexfibre shareholders, legislation.gov.uk

The Pattern

We looked for cases where the UK competition regulator, in a full review of a merger not yet completed, found harm to competition, rejected the firms’ claimed benefits and named only a ban as a working fix. We found ten such deals from 2004 to 2021. Until 2014 the regulator was the Competition Commission, after that the CMA. (CMA; CMA; GOV.UK)

10 of 10
Ten of ten times the UK regulator found harm in a deal not yet done and saw only a ban as the fix, the deal did not go ahead: it banned four, and the firms gave up on six.
2021 Crowdcube and Seedrs, 2021held
Crowdcube and Seedrs, which the CMA called the two leading providers, planned to merge. On the CMA found harm and saw a ban as the only working fix. The firms gave up the next day.
2020 YPO and Findel, 2020held
Yorkshire Purchasing Organisation planned to buy Findel Education. On the CMA found harm and named a ban as the fix. The deal was dropped and the review closed on .
Show the other 8 cases
2020 Sabre and Farelogix, 2020held
Sabre planned to buy Farelogix. On the CMA found harm and said a ban was the only fix. Sabre offered a lighter fix, but on the CMA blocked the whole deal.
2020 Prosafe and Floatel, 2020held
Prosafe planned to buy Floatel. The CMA called them the two largest suppliers. On it found harm and named only a ban. The firms gave up on .
2019 Illumina and PacBio, 2019held
Illumina planned to buy Pacific Biosciences. On the CMA found harm and saw a ban as the only working fix. The firms offered fixes and got more time, then gave up on .
2018 Experian and ClearScore, 2018held
Experian planned to buy ClearScore, the leading free credit check service. On the CMA said a ban was the only fix. It moved its deadline, and the firms gave up by .
2016 Clariant and Kilfrost, 2016held
Clariant planned to buy Kilfrost’s de-icing fluids business. On the CMA found harm and said only a ban would work. The firms gave up and the review closed on .
2012 AkzoNobel and Metlac, 2012held
AkzoNobel planned to buy the rest of Metlac. On the regulator found harm. The firms offered lighter fixes, but the regulator moved its deadline and banned the deal on .
2008 BOC and Ineos Chlor, 2008held
BOC, part of Linde, planned to buy Ineos Chlor’s packaged chlorine business. Harm was found on . The firms offered fixes and got more time, but the deal was banned on .
2004 Knauf and Superglass, 2004held
Knauf Insulation planned to buy Superglass. On the regulator said a ban was most likely the right fix. Knauf offered promises on its conduct, but the deal was banned on .

The Read

In five of the ten past deals the firms offered a fix after the regulator’s notice, and none of those deals went ahead: four were banned and one was dropped. The four quick walk-aways all came within 25 days. This deal is alive on day 38 and the firms are still fighting, so it is on the later path. Of the six past deals still alive at this point, four were banned and two were dropped, both after the regulator gave itself more time. The bans came 3 to 20 days before the deadline in force, and the CMA timetable puts this final report in early December.

There are reasons for doubt. Each time it was the same body deciding, the UK competition regulator, and all ten deals came before . That month the government asked the CMA to give weight to investment in the UK, after the CMA began a review of its approach to fixes in March. Since then the CMA has closed six full merger reviews and banned none. In the ten past deals one firm led its market or the two were the largest, while here both are smaller rivals of Openreach, the BT network. The CMA’s view also rests on CityFibre buying Substantial instead, and CityFibre is in talks with its lenders about its debt. On Virgin Media O2 said it will stop upgrading its own network to full fibre, which the CMA had expected it to keep doing.

Sources: nexfibre shareholders, CMA (2), CMA (2, 3, 4, 5), The Guardian, Virgin Media O2

Disclaimer

Hunch works only from sources that are publicly available, and publishes on the basis of analysis of that material. We do not form an editorial opinion or take sides, we give a simpler and wider view of news that already exists. If information in a source we used was inaccurate, distorted, or later disputed but had already entered our analysis, Hunch accepts no liability for that. Predictions are not advice. Phase 1 markets use Hunch Points, not money.

Published by Hunch under the Editorial Code. Complaints and corrections: /contact/.

Comment

Comments are moderated. Members post under their prediction record.