Nvidia forecasts $108bn in sales. It has beaten every forecast since early 2023.
Nvidia reported sales of $96.2bn for the quarter to 26 July, up 106% on a year earlier. It told investors to expect $108bn next quarter.
What happened
Nvidia reported second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion, up 18% from the previous quarter and 106% from a year ago, with data-centre revenue of $89.0 billion, and guided third-quarter revenue to $108.0 billion, plus or minus 2%.
Nvidia’s results for the quarter to show data-centre revenue, from chips sold for large computer centres, of $89.0bn, up 117% on a year earlier. Gross margin, the share of sales left after the cost of making the products, was 75.0%. Earnings per share were $2.46 under standard accounting rules (GAAP) and $2.22 on the company’s adjusted measure.
Nvidia expects sales of $108.0bn next quarter, plus or minus 2%. That is the number investors watch. It would be another 12% rise on sales that doubled in a year. Nvidia also expects a gross margin of 74.0% and running costs of about $9.0bn on its adjusted measure, and again assumes no data-centre sales to China.
Three months earlier, Nvidia had forecast $91.0bn, plus or minus 2%, for the quarter just ended. Sales came in at $96.2bn, above the top of that range, as they have in every quarter of the current run.
The Pattern
We compared eighteen forecasts with eighteen results. They cover every quarter from the forecast given in to the results of , all taken from Nvidia’s own earnings releases. A quarter counts if sales came in above the top of the forecast range. The eight newest are shown first.
Show the other 6 cases
The Read
History points to another beat. Nvidia’s sales came in above the top of its own range in each of the last eight quarters, and in every quarter since early 2023. Over the last four quarters it cleared the top of the range by 2.6 to 3.6 per cent. The forecast still leaves out China completely, so sales could rise further if export licences come through.
The doubt is the size of the step. Sales above $110.2bn would need a 14 per cent rise in one quarter, on sales that have doubled in a year. The three misses in the record all came in fiscal 2023, when demand turned within a quarter.
A break in supply or demand in the October quarter would end the run. For the next forecast, the question is whether Nvidia raises it by $17bn, as in August, or by $13bn, as in February.
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