Elections Alberta's official results announced on 29 October 2026 gave the option that Alberta should remain a province of Canada 74.95% of valid votes on question 10 (1,556,316 to 520,233), in line with the unofficial results reported by The Guardian.
History. 5 of 6 votes where the last polls favoured staying. The loss was Catalonia 2017, where many on the stay side did not vote.
Hunch. The May poll had staying ahead by 25 points, 60% to 35%, a wider lead than in Scotland in 2014, and Bloomberg reported on 29 September that polls still show a large majority for staying.
The stay market resolves on the official results of question 10 announced by Elections Alberta on 29 October 2026 at 10:00: YES if the option that Alberta should remain a province of Canada has more than 50% of valid votes. Exactly 50% resolves void. If the announcement is delayed, the market waits for it.
We looked for cases where all the voters of a region were asked one question, to stay in their country or to leave or start leaving, and the last published polls before the vote put staying ahead. We count each vote by its official result. We found six since 1980. In five the stay side won. None was called by a government that was itself against leaving, as Alberta's is.