Elections Alberta's official results announced on 29 October 2026 gave the remain option 74.95% of valid votes on question 10, well above 60%, in line with the unofficial results reported by The Guardian.
History. 4 of 5 votes with a poll figure: the stay side did worse than the last poll by 3.7 to 41 points. Scotland 2014 did better, by 2.3 points. Quebec 1980 has no poll figure.
Hunch. The 60% in May counts the 5% who had not decided, so among those who chose a side staying had about 63%, and a result under 60% needs a fall of more than three points (Angus Reid Institute, 27 May 2026).
The 60% market resolves on the same official results of question 10: YES if the remain option has less than 60.0% of valid votes, and NO at 60.0% or more.
We looked for cases where all the voters of a region were asked one question, to stay in their country or to leave or start leaving, and the last published polls before the vote put staying ahead. We count each vote by its official result. We found six since 1980. In five the stay side won. None was called by a government that was itself against leaving, as Alberta's is.