Elections Alberta's official results announced on 29 October 2026 put turnout at 70.4% of eligible electors (2,216,505 ballots on question 10 out of 3,148,205 electors), below 80%.
History. 4 of 6 votes. All four without a call to stay away topped 80%; both with such a call were under 60%.
Hunch. In every high-turnout case a government campaigned to leave or a treaty set the vote, while Alberta's premier says she wrote her question to satisfy both sides and the result is not binding (Angus Reid Institute, 27 May 2026; Elections Alberta, 2026).
The turnout market resolves on the turnout in the same official results: YES above 80.0% of electors on the list. If Elections Alberta gives no separate turnout figure, ballots cast on question 10 are divided by the number of electors on the list.
We looked for cases where all the voters of a region were asked one question, to stay in their country or to leave or start leaving, and the last published polls before the vote put staying ahead. We count each vote by its official result. We found six since 1980. In five the stay side won. None was called by a government that was itself against leaving, as Alberta's is.