Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market04 Sep 2026

Does Carlos Alcaraz reach the 2026 US Open men's singles final on 13 September?

BinaryResolves 12 Sep 2026
Hunch60%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Carlos Alcaraz lost his quarter-final to Ben Shelton 6-7(5) 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6(7) in a match that began late on 8 September and finished at 3.33am on 9 September 2026 after 4 hours 28 minutes (cbssports.com, 9 September 2026; nbcnews.com, 9 September 2026); Shelton went on to the semi-final against Frances Tiafoe.

Resolved 9 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the US Open official draw and results (usopen.org), published at the end of the second semi-final on Friday 11 September. It resolves YES if usopen.org lists Alcaraz as a finalist, whether or not the final is played to completion. If that source has not published in time, atptour.com and Sky Sports; a walkover into the final counts as reaching it settle it.

The pattern behind it

1 of 6
One of the last six major champions who made a Grand Slam their first tournament after an injury absence of four months or more won the title: Federer at the 2017 Australian Open. Nadal reached the 2019 Melbourne final; Djokovic went out in the fourth round in 2018; Wawrinka and Andreescu lost in the second round, Serena Williams in the first. The full record is the same six cases, 2017 to 2022.

We looked at Grand Slam champions who, between 2017 and 2022, made a major their first tournament after four months or more out injured, and at how far they went. We found six. The newest come first, and the record comes from BBC Sport, the Guardian and Sky Sports.