History. In four of five US Senate elections since 2002 where control could depend on a race that might go to a second round, the majority was named within 15 days. In 2020 it took 64 days.
Hunch. Polls reported by The Guardian on 23 October show Alaska's Senate race tied, and control of the Senate could come down to it.
The 18 November market resolves on the Associated Press US Senate results: YES if by 11.59pm Eastern time on 18 November 2026 the Associated Press says one party has a Senate majority, 51 seats or 50 with its own vice-president, and NO if not. Reports in past years often named the majority from Associated Press data without saying who declared it, so two Guardian or BBC News reports that the majority was named on Associated Press data also count, and they settle it if the Associated Press page does not open.
We looked for cases where control of the US Senate could depend on a race that might go to a second round, and counted the days from the vote until the Associated Press, or the results service it used, named the majority party. We found five such elections since 2002, all counted by the Associated Press.