The Associated Press called the Iowa Senate race for Josh Turek at 11.35pm Eastern time on 3 November 2026, which it said clinched Democratic control of the Senate; The Guardian and BBC News report on AP data that Democrats won the Senate majority.
History. Three of five times since 2002 the majority party was named on election night or the next day. Once it took four days and once 64.
Hunch. Alaska, where polls show the Senate race tied, accepts postal ballots until 13 November and finishes its count on 18 November.
The 4 November market resolves the same way by 11.59pm Eastern time on 4 November 2026: YES if the Associated Press, or two Guardian or BBC News reports on its data, name a party with a Senate majority, and NO if not. The same rule about Associated Press data applies here.
We looked for cases where control of the US Senate could depend on a race that might go to a second round, and counted the days from the vote until the Associated Press, or the results service it used, named the majority party. We found five such elections since 2002, all counted by the Associated Press.