Hunch. Polls reported by The Guardian on 23 October show Dan S Sullivan and Mary Peltola tied, with a second Republican also on the ballot.
The Alaska market resolves on the Associated Press results for Alaska's US Senate race: YES if it names a winner by 11.59pm Eastern time on 17 November 2026, before the ranked count, and NO if it names one on 18 November or later. The Guardian and BBC News settle it if the Associated Press page does not open.
We looked for cases where control of the US Senate could depend on a race that might go to a second round, and counted the days from the vote until the Associated Press, or the results service it used, named the majority party. We found five such elections since 2002, all counted by the Associated Press.