Hunch. Manchester City, level with Arsenal at the top, were found guilty of breaking league rules, and the punishment can include a points deduction.
The Arsenal title market resolves on the final 2026-27 Premier League table and the league announcement on premierleague.com: YES if Arsenal are declared champions, and NO if another club is. If the season is cancelled or no champion is declared by 13 June 2027, the market is void, and BBC Sport and The Guardian settle it if the league site cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where the champions of one of the five biggest leagues in Europe were level on points at the top after eight games, while another club up to six points behind had won its last two league games. The leagues are in different countries, but the race works the same way in each: every club plays every other club home and away, and the club with the most points at the end wins. We found nine such seasons since 1997, three in England, two each in Italy, France and Spain. The champions won the league again in three. (The Guardian; The Guardian)