Hunch. Manchester City, the only club level with Arsenal, could lose points over their rule breaking, which would make a top two finish easier for Arsenal.
The top two market resolves on the official final table after the last round on 30 May 2027: YES if Arsenal are first or second, and NO if they are third or lower. Changes the league makes to the table after 30 May do not count, and BBC Sport and The Guardian are the backups.
We looked for cases where the champions of one of the five biggest leagues in Europe were level on points at the top after eight games, while another club up to six points behind had won its last two league games. The leagues are in different countries, but the race works the same way in each: every club plays every other club home and away, and the club with the most points at the end wins. We found nine such seasons since 1997, three in England, two each in Italy, France and Spain. The champions won the league again in three. (The Guardian; The Guardian)