Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market12 Sep 2026

Does a named assisted dying vehicle get announced by 13 Oct?

BinaryResolves 13 Oct 2026
History14%
Hunch30%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

By 13 October 2026 the Parliament bills record showed no new assisted dying bill in either House, and BBC News and the Guardian reported no named vehicle from an MP, peer, Dignity in Dying or Humanists UK; Dignity in Dying's 30 September statement only vowed to keep fighting.

Resolved 13 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the Parliament bills record at bills.parliament.uk, which lists a new bill on the day of first reading, and on BBC News and the Guardian for statements: YES if by 23:59 BST on 13 October 2026 either a new bill on assisted dying appears on the record in either House, or a named MP or peer, Dignity in Dying or Humanists UK is reported stating a specific vehicle, meaning a bill title, a named House, a pledge to enter the next private members' ballot with the bill, or an amendment to a named government bill; general vows to keep campaigning, and the statements of 11 to 13 September cited above, do not count. If none of the three has published, PoliticsHome settles it, and silence resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

1 of 7
One of seven defeats since 1969 was followed within 31 days by a named next vehicle, Lord Joffe's 2006 pledge to bring his bill back. The other six named nothing in the month; only the 2015 Commons defeat saw a bill within a year.

We looked at every assisted dying bill voted down in the Commons, the Lords or the Scottish Parliament since 1969. There are seven. For each, we checked whether the sponsor or the main campaign named its next step within 31 days: a new bill, a Lords bill, a promise to enter the ballot, or an inquiry by a committee. Bills that ran out of time without a vote are left out. Only one of the seven named a next step within the month.