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Hunch
Market29 Aug 2026

Will the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill carry its second reading on 11 September 2026?

BinaryResolves 11 Sep 2026
Hunch71%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The Commons rejected the bill at second reading on 11 September 2026, Ayes 270 Noes 286 (division 2428, commonsvotes-api.parliament.uk); the closure motion carried 293-218 beforehand.

Resolved 11 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the Commons division record on votes.parliament.uk for Friday 11 September 2026, published the same day. YES if the question that the bill be read a second time is agreed, on a division or without one; NO if it is negatived or if the House does not reach the question that day. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and PoliticsHome settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
Four of the last five qualifying second readings carried: the death penalty bill in 1964, the abortion and sexual offences bills in 1966 and the assisted dying bill in 2024. The one defeat, in 2015, was the case closest in subject to the bill now before the House. Five cases is the full record since 1964 and below the six Hunch requires to show History, which is why the fraction is published rather than a chart.

We looked at every Commons second reading since 1964 of a backbench bill that would remove or narrow a criminal ban on a matter of conscience, on a free vote where neither main party told its MPs how to vote. Government bills, bills that create a new crime and Lords bills are left out. We asked one thing: did the bill pass its second reading? Five bills fit, and four of them passed. That is one fewer than the six we need before we show History.