What will the August 2026 CPI 12-month rate print at on 16 September?
Multiple choiceResolves 16 Sep 2026
Hunch
2.7% or lower20%
2.8% to 3.0%57%
3.1% or higher23%
Your forecast
2.7% or lower
2.8% to 3.0%
3.1% or higher
Resolved
Resolved: 3.1% or higher
The ONS release of 16 September 2026 put the August CPI 12-month rate at 3.1 per cent (ONS series D7G7, MM23).
Resolved 16 Sep 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on the same first-published August 2026 CPI 12-month rate, placed in one of the three bands. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and Reuters settle it.
The pattern behind it
2 of 8
Two of the last eight turn-ups carried into the following month: July 2018 (2.5 to 2.7) and June 2020 (0.6 to 1.0). Three held (February 2019, December 2023, July 2024) and three fell back (January 2020, February 2023, December 2025). In the full ONS series from January 1989 the annual rate has turned up after three or more months without a rise 38 times; the following month was higher in 16, unchanged in 7 and lower in 15.
We looked at every month since January 1989 when UK inflation rose after at least three months without a rise. July 2026 fits, because the rate fell in April and June and did not move in May. For each case we checked whether the next month was higher again. There are 38 such months. The last eight are shown below, and all 38 are counted.
Some cookies are essential for Hunch to work properly. Others are optional—you decide whether to allow them. We don’t sell your personal data. Learn more and change your choices at any time in Cookie settings.