The ONS consumer price inflation release of 16 September 2026 put the CPI 12-month rate for August at 3.1 per cent, up from 2.9 per cent in July (ONS series D7G7, MM23).
The market resolves on the CPI 12-month rate for August 2026 as first published in the ONS consumer price inflation bulletin at 7am on 16 September 2026, to one decimal place; YES if it is 3.0 per cent or higher, NO at 2.9 or below. First published figure governs; revisions do not reopen. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and Reuters reports of the release settle it.
We looked at every month since January 1989 when UK inflation rose after at least three months without a rise. July 2026 fits, because the rate fell in April and June and did not move in May. For each case we checked whether the next month was higher again. There are 38 such months. The last eight are shown below, and all 38 are counted.