Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market05 Aug 2026

Does the Chancellor announce a new bank levy or a higher bank surcharge by 31 Aug 2026?

BinaryResolves 31 Aug 2026
History3 of 5
Hunch60%
Your forecast
  • Yes
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Resolved
Resolved: NO

No levy announced. Treasury told the Telegraph (29 Aug) tax decisions are 'set out at fiscal events'; Guardian (2 Sep) says Healey is 'reportedly considering' a bank windfall tax for 28 Oct. HM Treasury August news carries none.

Resolved 31 Aug 2026
How this resolves

The August market resolved on HM Treasury announcements published on gov.uk between 5 and 31 August 2026, corroborated by at least two of BBC, Reuters and the FT. A hedged departmental line, an anonymous briefing or a report that the Chancellor was considering a levy would not have counted.

The pattern behind it

3 of 5
Three of five windfall-pressure episodes since 1981 produced a levy. The split has a structure: the levies came when a new government's first Budget or an acute crisis supplied political cover; the refusals came from chancellors mid-term, guarding the City. October is a new government's first Budget, with a cost-of-living programme waiting for a funding line.

Britain has seen this before. One industry makes very large profits while people struggle with costs, and the chancellor needs money. We found five such cases since 1981, and they split. Three ended in a new tax, which came at a new government's first Budget or in a crisis. Two ended with no tax, when chancellors in the middle of a term protected the City of London.