What form does bank taxation take in the 28 October Budget?
Multiple choiceResolves 28 Oct 2026
Hunch
No new bank tax measure40%
Surcharge rise only37%
New standalone windfall levy15%
Other bank-specific measure8%
Your forecast
No new bank tax measure
Surcharge rise only
New standalone windfall levy
Other bank-specific measure
Resolved
Resolved: Surcharge rise only
The only bank-specific tax measure in the 28 October 2026 Budget is a temporary rise in the Bank Corporation Tax Surcharge from 3% to 6% from 1 January 2027 to 31 March 2028, with no new levy, the Budget 2026 document on GOV.UK shows.
Resolved 28 Oct 2026
How this resolves
The multi market resolves on the same HM Treasury Budget documents; if more than one measure applies, it resolves to the largest by Budget scorecard revenue.
The pattern behind it
3 of 5
Three of five windfall-pressure episodes since 1981 produced a levy. The split has a structure: the levies came when a new government's first Budget or an acute crisis supplied political cover; the refusals came from chancellors mid-term, guarding the City. October is a new government's first Budget, with a cost-of-living programme waiting for a funding line.
Britain has seen this before. One industry makes very large profits while people struggle with costs, and the chancellor needs money. We found five such cases since 1981, and they split. Three ended in a new tax, which came at a new government's first Budget or in a crisis. Two ended with no tax, when chancellors in the middle of a term protected the City of London.
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