Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market26 Sep 2026

Will the BBC name a channel or service to cut by 31 Oct 2027?

BinaryResolves 31 Oct 2027
History78%
Hunch78%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

On 20 October 2026 the BBC announced that the BBC Three and BBC Scotland TV channels will close next spring and go online only and that Radio 4 Extra will close, as BBC News and The Guardian reported.

Resolved 20 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 7 of 9. Lists followed at the World Service in 2011, BBC Three in 2014, the BBC in 2022, DR in 2018, ABC in 2014 and 2020, and NPO in 2025. None came at the BBC in 2019 or at ORF in 2023.

Hunch. Brittin told staff in June that the BBC would review its TV channels and radio stations, so work on a list had begun months before this warning (Deadline, 23 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

The first market resolves YES if, between 25 September 2026 and 31 October 2027, the BBC announces through the BBC Media Centre, a BBC statement or its annual plan that it will cut a BBC TV channel, radio station, World Service language service, national or regional news service, or regular news bulletin that will close, merge with another, lose broadcast hours, or stop broadcasting and stay online only. Cuts to single programmes or series do not count, and neither do closures the BBC announced before 25 September 2026, such as Radio 4 long wave. BBC News reports of the BBC's own decision settle it if the Media Centre is silent.

The pattern behind it

7 of 9
In 7 of 9 cases the broadcaster later named a service it would cut, between 15 days and about 13 months after the warning. No list came in the BBC's case of 2018 to 2019 or ORF's of 2023.

We looked for cases where the head of a large public broadcaster, after the government cut or froze its money, said in public that audiences would lose something: a channel, a station, a language service or a news bulletin. We then checked whether the broadcaster later named what would go. We found nine cases since 2010, and in seven a list of cuts followed. Four of the nine are the BBC. The other five are Denmark's DR, Australia's ABC twice, the Dutch NPO and Austria's ORF, which are paid for by a licence fee or by the state in a similar way.