Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market26 Sep 2026

Will the BBC name a service to move online or merge by 31 Oct 2027?

BinaryResolves 31 Oct 2027
History56%
Hunch56%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 Oct 2027
Why these numbers

History. 5 of 9. BBC Three in 2014, the BBC in 2022, DR in 2018, ABC in 2020 and NPO in 2025 moved a service online or merged it. The World Service in 2011 and ABC in 2014 only closed or cut, and two cases had no list.

Hunch. Brittin's own example on 25 September was moving a channel fully to iPlayer, the BBC's online service, rather than switching it off (BBC News, 25 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

The online-or-merge market resolves YES if, between 25 September 2026 and 31 October 2027, the BBC announces that a named channel, station or service will stop broadcasting while its programmes stay on iPlayer or BBC Sounds, or will merge with another BBC channel or service. A plain closure with no online home resolves NO for this market.

The pattern behind it

7 of 9
In 7 of 9 cases the broadcaster later named a service it would cut, between 15 days and about 13 months after the warning. No list came in the BBC's case of 2018 to 2019 or ORF's of 2023.

We looked for cases where the head of a large public broadcaster, after the government cut or froze its money, said in public that audiences would lose something: a channel, a station, a language service or a news bulletin. We then checked whether the broadcaster later named what would go. We found nine cases since 2010, and in seven a list of cuts followed. Four of the nine are the BBC. The other five are Denmark's DR, Australia's ABC twice, the Dutch NPO and Austria's ORF, which are paid for by a licence fee or by the state in a similar way.