Will a Die Linke politician be elected Berlin's mayor by 10 Dec?
BinaryResolves 10 Dec 2026
History38%
Hunch38%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolves 10 Dec 2026
Why these numbers
History. 3 of 8. The first party's candidate became head of government in Hesse 1987, Rhineland-Palatinate 1991 and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern 1998.
Hunch.
For: The CDU and SPD lost their majority. In the cases where the old government lost its majority, the first party took over in two of four.
For: Die Linke with the SPD and the Greens would have 95 seats, the largest majority on offer.
Against: The CDU with the SPD and the Greens would also have a majority, 82 seats.
Against: The SPD and the Greens want answers on antisemitism claims before they agree to work with Die Linke (The Guardian, 24 Sep 2026).
How this resolves
The first market resolves on the Berlin parliament's record or announcement of the vote for Governing Mayor: YES if a member of Die Linke is elected Governing Mayor on or before 10 December 2026, NO otherwise. The Senate Chancellery list of mayors and reports by Reuters or The Guardian are the backup.
The pattern behind it
3 of 8
3 of 8: in eight German state elections since 1974 where a party that had never led the state came first without a majority, its candidate became head of government three times.
We looked for cases where a party that had never led a German state came first in a state election without a majority, while a majority without it was also possible. We checked every state election since 1946 in the official results and found eight such cases, from 1974 to 2019. In each we asked whether the first party's candidate became head of government, and how long the state parliament took to elect one.
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