Tigst Assefa won the BMW Berlin Marathon on 27 September 2026 in 2:11:04, outside the 2:09:56 world record, according to the race organisers and World Athletics.
History. 6 of 9. In six of nine such races the record fell; the three misses faded after 30 to 35km.
Hunch.
The record market resolves on the official results of the BMW Berlin Marathon on 27 September 2026: YES if Tigst Assefa's official finishing time is 2:09:55 or faster. Ratification is not needed. If she does not start, the market is void. World Athletics' race report is the backup.
We looked for women's marathons where the clear favourite did not hold the world record, had a slower best of her own, and ran at record pace from the start with male pacemakers, in cool weather. We found nine since 1998, and the record fell in six. Two more attempts, in London in 2018 and Chicago in 2021, were run in heat of 20 to 22C and both missed by more than eight minutes.