Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market05 Oct 2026

Will the US ask a higher court to pause the Big Bend ban by 16 Oct?

BinaryResolves 16 Oct 2026
History3 of 4
Hunch60%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

By 16 October 2026 the government had not asked the Fifth Circuit or the Supreme Court to pause Judge Cardone's order: the court record on CourtListener shows only its 8 October stay request to Judge Cardone herself (document 74) and a 16 October notice (document 76) saying it will go to the Supreme Court only if she has not ruled by 21 October, there is no notice of appeal, and a search of supremecourt.gov finds no case; no Guardian or Reuters report of a higher court filing was found.

Resolved 16 Oct 2026
Why these numbers

History. 3 of 4 cases. Requests came on the same day, after 4 days and within 14 days.

Hunch. Under the law behind the waivers, appeals go only to the Supreme Court by a special petition, which takes longer to prepare than the usual appeal and may push a request past 16 October.

How this resolves

Resolves on the court records for the case, the Fifth Circuit docket and the Supreme Court docket on supremecourt.gov, checked at 10:00 on 17 October 2026: YES if by 16 October the government asked the Fifth Circuit or the Supreme Court to pause Judge Cardone's order, while a request to Judge Cardone herself resolves NO. The Guardian and Reuters are the backup.

The pattern behind it

3 of 4
In 3 of 4 cases the government asked a higher court to pause the ban, within 0 to 14 days. In the fourth, Mexico in 2022, it restarted the work under a new national security order instead.

We looked for cases where a government was building under emergency or national security powers that set normal rules aside, work had started, and a judge then stopped it until the case was decided. We found four since 2022. Three are in the United States and two involve the Trump administration. The White House ballroom case of 2026 is the one the count rests on: without it there would be only three.