Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market05 Oct 2026

Will a higher court pause the Big Bend wall ban by 2 November?

BinaryResolves 2 Nov 2026
History3 of 4
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

By 2 November 2026 no higher court had paused Judge Cardone's order: the Supreme Court docket 26A560 shows the government's stay application of 21 October with replies filed to 30 October and no order, the Fifth Circuit has no case, and Al Jazeera reported the request pending.

Resolved 2 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. 3 of 4 cases. Each time the government asked, the higher court's first answer was a pause, 1 to 17 days after the ban.

Hunch. No request has been filed in the first three days, and if it must go to the Supreme Court by petition, a pause needs both a filing and an order inside four weeks.

How this resolves

Resolves on the Fifth Circuit and Supreme Court dockets, checked at 10:00 on 3 November 2026: YES if by 2 November either court, or a single justice, paused Judge Cardone's order in whole or in part, and a refusal or no order resolves NO. The Guardian and Reuters are the backup.

The pattern behind it

3 of 4
In 3 of 4 cases the government asked a higher court to pause the ban, within 0 to 14 days. In the fourth, Mexico in 2022, it restarted the work under a new national security order instead.

We looked for cases where a government was building under emergency or national security powers that set normal rules aside, work had started, and a judge then stopped it until the case was decided. We found four since 2022. Three are in the United States and two involve the Trump administration. The White House ballroom case of 2026 is the one the count rests on: without it there would be only three.