Hunch. When the same North Korean unit stole $1.5bn from Bybit in 2025, the FBI named it within five days, but 20 months later the US has still not sanctioned anyone or gone to court over that theft.
The sanctions or court market resolves YES if, by 23:59 Eastern Time on 31 December 2026, a US Treasury press release adds a person, firm, coin-mixing service or wallet to the sanctions list and names the 29 October Binance theft, or a Justice Department press release announces a court case to take money stolen from Binance. An FBI statement, charges or seizures without such a case, company freezes, sanctions that do not name the theft, and a case announced only after 31 December resolve NO, with BBC News and The Guardian confirming it or settling it if the official pages cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where hackers linked to North Korea stole $100m or more in crypto from a company that kept the money. Then we checked whether the US Treasury sanctioned someone it tied to that theft, or US prosecutors went to court to take its money, and how fast. We found eight such thefts since 2018. The US dealt with the three from 2023 in one action.