Hunch. About $2.3bn of the stolen money is already frozen by the stablecoin firms Tether and Circle, and US prosecutors have gone to court before to take frozen North Korean loot like this.
The court market resolves YES if, by 23:59 Eastern Time on 31 December 2026, a Justice Department press release announces a filed civil forfeiture complaint, a court case to take over money stolen from Binance on 29 October. Seizure warrants or charges without such a case, Treasury sanctions and company freezes resolve NO, and BBC News and The Guardian confirm it or settle it if the Justice Department site cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where hackers linked to North Korea stole $100m or more in crypto from a company that kept the money. Then we checked whether the US Treasury sanctioned someone it tied to that theft, or US prosecutors went to court to take its money, and how fast. We found eight such thefts since 2018. The US dealt with the three from 2023 in one action.