Bitcoin closed 31 July near $62,850 (Yahoo Finance $62,814; Binance BTCUSDT $62,888), inside the band.
Resolved 31 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The price market resolves on the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate at 4pm New York time on 31 July 2026. Exact band boundaries are inclusive at the lower bound and exclusive at the upper bound.
The pattern behind it
2 of 4
In 2 of 4 previous 50% drawdowns, down-half proved to be near the low and new records followed within months. In the other 2, the decline roughly doubled from there. The pattern is a genuine coin-split, and this is the first drawdown where ETF flows, not exchanges, set the marginal price.
Bitcoin has fallen 50% from a peak four times before. Twice that point was close to the bottom, and new record highs came within months. Twice it was only halfway, and the price kept falling much further.
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