Bitcoin broke below $60,000 in late June for the first time since 2024, within a week of the Fed's 17 June meeting, and ended the month down about 20%.
Resolved 30 Jun 2026
How this resolves
The June market resolved on any print below $60,000 during June 2026, per the CME CF Bitcoin Reference Rate and major spot exchange data.
The pattern behind it
2 of 4
In 2 of 4 previous 50% drawdowns, down-half proved to be near the low and new records followed within months. In the other 2, the decline roughly doubled from there. The pattern is a genuine coin-split, and this is the first drawdown where ETF flows, not exchanges, set the marginal price.
Bitcoin has fallen 50% from a peak four times before. Twice that point was close to the bottom, and new record highs came within months. Twice it was only halfway, and the price kept falling much further.
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