History. 5 of 6 cases, all at the Bank of England.
Hunch. The Budget on 28 October lands a week before the vote, something none of the past cases had, and in May 2018 one weak set of figures turned an expected rise into a hold within three weeks.
The rate market resolves on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Summary of 5 November 2026, published at 12 noon London time on bankofengland.co.uk: YES if Bank Rate is set at 4% or higher, and a hold at 3.75% or a cut resolves NO. If the Bank's page cannot be reached, The Guardian and BBC News reports of the decision settle it.
We looked for cases where the Bank of England kept its rate the same while some members voted for a rise, inflation was above target, and before the next meeting markets put the chance of a rise at 80% or more. We found six since 1997. In five the Bank raised its rate at the next meeting. All six were decided by the same committee, so this is the record of one institution.