History. 4 of 6 cases: the next vote was 7 to 2 or 6 to 3 four times, and 9 to 0 twice.
Hunch. In September two members of the majority, Swati Dhingra and Alan Taylor, asked for more time to see the evidence while three wanted a rise, so a 9 to 0 vote needs one of those groups to move all the way.
The vote market resolves on the vote count in the same Summary and minutes of 5 November 2026: YES if at least one member votes against the majority on Bank Rate, in either direction, and a 9 to 0 vote resolves NO. The Guardian and BBC News reports of the vote are the backup.
We looked for cases where the Bank of England kept its rate the same while some members voted for a rise, inflation was above target, and before the next meeting markets put the chance of a rise at 80% or more. We found six since 1997. In five the Bank raised its rate at the next meeting. All six were decided by the same committee, so this is the record of one institution.