Long-dated gilts stayed in the sales plan. The Bank will sell gilts maturing between 2035 and 2049 and keep only the £120bn maturing after 2049, which it holds to back banknotes.
(adjacent). The market resolves on the same 17 September Market Notice; YES if the sales plan for October 2026 to September 2027 sets the long maturity sector, gilts of over 20 years, at zero or leaves it out for the whole year. A reduced but non-zero long share, or a zero for one quarter only, resolves NO. Baseline: the 18 September 2025 notice set long-dated bonds at 20% of sales and the 19 June 2026 notice scheduled no long auctions for Q3 2026. If the Bank's pages are unavailable, Reuters and the Financial Times reports of the notice settle it; silence resolves NO.
We looked at planned decisions on the pace of bond sales since 2019 by the Bank of England, the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada. We took only decisions made while markets, governments or economists were publicly asking for a slowdown in the weeks before. For each, we checked whether the bank cut the pace, stopped selling some bonds or ended sales at that decision. We also checked whether the 10-year bond yield was lower 90 days later.